Insights

Authored by Krishan Gopaul and Johan Palmberg

• The risk of stagflation has increased materially since we addressed the topic last year
• Europe appears to be at greater risk than the US, due to higher exposure to soaring commodity prices and a weaker economic position, but alarm bells could soon ring across the Atlantic, too
• Year-to-date, gold has performed well, arguably reflecting the Ukraine crisis and the ongoing reflationary environment
• But should stagflation become widespread it could provide further support for gold as a diversifier and risk hedge

Due to fewer working days in the month and manufacturers’ active replenishing ahead of the Chinese New Year (CNY) holiday, gold withdrawals from the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) in February fell m-o-m.

Spot #gold is trading around $1827/oz with a $0.30/oz bid-ask spread on Friday morning in London.

Although it bounced after stronger US inflation data, it couldn't hold those gains as yields firmed late in the day.

But let's look at a slightly longer term perspective...

The September edition of Bank of America’s bellwether Global Fund Manager Survey highlights a growing disconnect between fund managers’ expectations and their positioning: funds remain heavily overweight equities despite increasing pessimism over global economic prospects.

Global average All-in Sustaining Costs (AISC) in the gold mining industry increased by 10% y-o-y in Q2’21, reaching US$1,067/oz. This was also the third consecutive quarter in which AISC has risen. This cost inflation is being driven by several factors, both at the mine site and at the macroeconomic level.

Between 23:30 and 23:45 BST 17,538 contracts traded on Comex, low was $1677.90. Between 23:45 to Midnight a further 7,825 contracts traded and 5,705 in the 15 minutes that followed...

Our short-term gold performance model enables investors to dissect monthly gold returns into key drivers of investment demand. Different estimation windows provide additional insights on the varying influence of drivers over time. During May, our model shows gold’s performance was only modestly impacted by rates but they still remain a relevant driver this year.

There has recently been a lot of discussion and debate around the possible similarities and differences of gold and Bitcoin (and, by implication, other cryptocurrencies), and this has often included consideration of their relative environmental impacts and, specifically, their carbon footprints.

Listen to this podcast ‘Back to the gold fold’ for topics including US real rates, gold demand trends in consumer and investment markets, the COMEX market dislocation and the differences between gold and cryptocurrencies

Investor confidence in Germany recently jumped to a 21-year high, cheered by an acceleration of the domestic coronavirus vaccine programme and concomitant slowing of the domestic third wave of coronavirus. But while optimism for an economic upturn runs high, it brings with it growing fears of rising prices among inflation-wary German investors.

The volatility of numerous assets has shifted along with the performance of gold, which has recently rebounded to nearly flat on the year. Given this shift, we consider it important to assess the current gold market conditions from a volatility and derivatives perspective, along with what technical charts are suggesting about where gold could move in the near- and long-term. We believe that regardless of an investor’s gold sentiment, the following conditions are present and create an opportunity:

Net Managed Money positions in Comex gold futures increased again last week, although positions remain modest compared to highs seen in 2016 and 2019.

Our latest Gold Demand Trends report was released last week, explaining in detail developments in the different elements of global demand in Q1 2021.

In historical periods of economic contraction and low rates, gold has generated relatively attractive returns compared to stocks and bonds, and improved risk-adjusted returns for Australian investors.

We recently hosted a conversation with Institutional Investor and Ned Naylor-Leyland, Jupiter Asset Management’s Head of Gold and Silver, to discuss gold performance in the current rate environment and the broader outlook for 2021.

Our analysis indicates that over the past year, gold’s sensitivity to interest rates, accounting for other factors, has risen more than four-fold

Interest rates have been a key driver for gold in both 2020 and 2021. As interest rates have moved higher, the gold price has decreased… but higher inflation expectations may provide some support for gold.

Explore China's gold market in January - gold prices, China's economy, central bank gold demand and more.

This podcast explores the outlook for gold, touching on the Robinhood phenomenon, cryptocurrency, inflation and global supply and demand dynamics

In this webinar with the PLSA, we demystify common misconceptions on gold and highlight the overall benefits it can bring to a pension portfolio.