Insights

Explore India's gold market in January - the gold price, gold jewellery and investment demand, India's economic recovery and more...

On 2nd February, India’s gold import duty decreased with consumers now paying 14.07% tax for refined gold compared to 16.26% previously. We explore what this may mean for the Indian gold market.

Explore India's gold market in December - gold ETFs, India's gold jewellery market, investment demand and more...

Explore India's gold market in November - gold prices, economic recovery, India's retail gold market and more...

Explore India's gold market in September - gold prices, economic recovery, India's retail gold market and more...

To widen the tax revenue the Finance Minister, Nirmala Sitharaman, announced during the annual budget of 2020-21 an extension to the scope of Tax Collected at Source (TCS). This blog discusses the impact of TCS on bullion dealers and the resultant impact on other participants in the gold supply chain.

Demand for safe haven assets and strong year-to-date performance, coupled with the price correction likely seen by investors as a buying opportunity, supported gold ETF flows. On the other hand, retail gold demand weakened as consumers waited on the sidelines following a sharp correction in the domestic gold price amid rising COVID-19 cases.

Mukesh Kumar provides an update on India's gold market in July. Explore Indian jewellery demand, investment demand, gold imports, the gold price, central bank gold and more.

Jewellery demand improved further in the month but failed to recover completely due to recurring lockdowns, lower number of weddings and lack of auspicious days in the month. Bullish gold price momentum and safe-haven demand lured investors towards gold ETFs. Total holdings for Indian gold ETFs reached to 24t in June.

A rising gold price, higher volatility in the equity market and safe-haven demand lured investors towards gold ETFs. Jewellery demand improved in southern India but remained weak elsewhere.

Vishal Jain is widely regarded as the founding father of the Indian gold ETF market. Now head of ETFs at the Nippon India Mutual Fund, Jain explains why interest in gold ETFs has soared in India recently and assesses prospects for the market.

A higher gold price, nation-wide lockdowns and concerns over household income curtailed gold demand on Akshaya Tritiya (AT) this year. 

To curb the spread of COVID-19, the global restrictions have impacted the global gold supply chain, from production to refining. These supply-chain disruptions have impacted both bullion and gold dore’ imports into India.

The domestic gold price increased by 4.1% in February m-o-m and 8.4% higher than the end of 2019. The rising gold price and higher volatility in the market lured investors towards gold ETFs.

Wedding and stable domestic gold price at ~Rs 37800/10gm helped demand in first half of December but demand tailed off after 15th December after the beginning of inauspicious period and rising gold price which jumped by 3.7% from mid-December till end of the month.

Summary

• Indian gold imports were 62.3t in October 2019 – 11% lower than the same month last year
• The domestic gold price declined by 2% in November, ending the month 20% higher than the end of 2018
• With the onset of the wedding season in November, the local market was back in premia of US$1/oz on 6th November after trading at discount for more than five months, but lower than expected wedding volumes pushed the market back into discount by end of November
• Late withdrawal of the monsoon, with heavy rainfall in several states of India, damaged kharif crops, leading to more than 50% of kharif crops trading below the minimum support price (MSP) due to high moisture content and little progress in procurement of crops from government . This will impact rural income in Q4 2019

Summary

• Indian gold imports were 38.3t in October 2019 – 15% lower than the same month last year
• The domestic gold price rose by 3.1% during October, ending the month 22.4% higher than the end of 2018
• With the festival of Dhanteras in October and onset of wedding season in November, the discount in the local market narrowed to US$3/oz by end of October from a discount of US$29.5/oz at end of September
• Late withdrawal of the monsoon, with heavy rainfall in several states of India, damaged the kharif crops and more than 60% of kharif crops traded below the minimum support price (MSP) in October due to high moisture content and little progress in procurement of crops from government.

I have just come back from a short trip to India, presenting at the Gems and Jewellery Export Promotion Council’s third India Gold and Jewellery Summit in Delhi, as well as sneaking in some field research and presenting the investment case for gold to some wealth managers in Mumbai with my colleague, Mukesh.

• Indian gold imports reached just 26.3t in September 2019 – 61% lower than the same month last year.
• The domestic gold price was 2.4% lower in September compared to August, but 18.7% higher y-t-d.
• With weak physical demand, the discount in the local gold market reached a peak of US$55/oz in September, but narrowed to US$29.5/oz by the end of the month.
• Monsoon levels in 2019 are the highest for 25 years; Kharif sowing almost flat y-o-y.

• The domestic gold price was 10.3% higher in August compared to July, outpacing the LBMA gold price which rose by 7%
• Indian gold imports reached just 28.2t in August 2019 – 70% lower than the same month last year and lowest level since January 2018
• With elevated domestic gold prices and a higher custom duty, the discount in the local gold market widened out as far as US$55/oz in August
• Monsoon rainfall is 5% above Long Period Average (LPA) with Kharif sowing just 0.2% lower than last year; normal monsoon and healthy sowing bodes well for rural gold demand in Q4 2019.